Bitwise CIO: 2026 is Bitcoin's Big Year - Traditional 4-Year Cycle May Be Over?

For a long time, the Bitcoin market has followed the so-called "four-year halving cycle" pattern: every four years, after the halving event, the market typically experiences a bull run. This model was validated in 2013, 2017, and 2021. However, Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has put forward a completely different perspective:

"The real bull market will arrive in 2026, and the four-year cycle is no longer applicable."

This statement has sparked heated discussions in the crypto community. This article will deeply analyze the logic behind this view, market signals, and how you should respond to this potential "new cycle."

📉 What is the "Four-Year Cycle"? Why Has It "Failed"?

Traditional Model:

• Every four years, Bitcoin "halves," reducing miner rewards by 50%.
• Supply slowdown → Market scarcity → Bull market begins.
• Examples:
  • 2012 halving → 2013 bull run
  • 2016 halving → 2017 bull run
  • 2020 halving → 2021 bull run

Hougan's Counter-Argument:

• The impact of halving is gradually weakening (inflation rate is getting lower and lower).
• Market structure has been dominated by institutional capital, with behavior patterns different from the past.
• Policy and macroeconomics (such as interest rates) have a greater impact on Bitcoin prices.

📈 Why is He Bullish on 2026?

1. Macro Policy May Turn Accommodative

• Rate cut expectations are heating up, and the Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure.
• An accommodative cycle will reduce the appeal of fiat currency, which is bullish for Bitcoin.

2. Increasing Institutionalization

• After ETF products were approved, large amounts of capital flowed in.
• Bitcoin treasury companies are emerging (such as MicroStrategy, BitMine), locking up large amounts of BTC for the long term.

3. Policy Stabilization and Regulatory Framework Gradually Taking Shape

• Positive regulatory frameworks have been introduced in the United States, Hong Kong, and the UAE.
• Regulatory transparency reduces black swan risks and increases institutional confidence.

"The driving force of this cycle is no longer 'halving,' but 'institutionalization' and 'macro environment'." — Matt Hougan

🧭 2025–2026 Bitcoin Investment Roadmap

Below is a practical investment timeline combining market rhythm and institutional perspectives:

📅 2025: Strategic Accumulation Period

• The market may still have ups and downs, and the top cannot be confirmed.
• Recommended strategy:
  • Accumulate positions in batches, deploy ETF or spot positions
  • Maintain liquidity and wait for macro clarity before adding positions
  • Avoid chasing highs and pay attention to policy risks

📅 2026: Potential Main Uptrend

• If Bitwise is correct, there will be a structural bull run.
• Market leaders will change from retail investors to "institutions + treasuries + ETFs."
• Recommended strategy:
  • Hold long-term positions without easily taking profits
  • Lock in periodic returns through rotation and position adjustments
  • Focus on high-quality ETFs, RWA, stablecoin ecosystems, and other thematic sectors related to BTC

💬 Other Market Voices

• ✅ CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju: Whale buying and selling behavior has changed, cycle patterns have failed.
• ✅ VanEck, Galaxy Digital, and other institutions: Bitcoin is becoming a "strategic allocation asset."
• ⚠️ Rekt Capital and other technical analysts: Still adhere to the "four-year halving theory," believing 2025 may be the top.

❓ FAQ: Common Questions from Beginners

✅ Summary: Long-term Bullish Doesn't Mean There's Nothing to Do Now

"2026 is the golden window, but the key preparation period is now."

You don't need to "catch the bottom," but you can:

• Build your core positions in 2025
• Pay attention to ETFs, policies, and institutional actions
• Reduce emotional trading and focus on rhythm and allocation

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